Soda ash hian industry tam takah hmun pawimawh tak a chang a, khawvel pum huapa hman zat 60% vel chu glass industry hian a luah a ni.
Sheet glass hi glass market-a segment lian ber a ni a, container glass hi glass market-a segment lian ber pahnihna a ni (Figure 1). Solar panel-a hman solar control glass hi mamawhna sang ber a ni.
Kum 2023-ah chuan Chinese demand growth hi a hmaa a sang ber 10% a tling dawn a, net growth ton maktaduai 2.9 a ni ang. China tel loin khawvel puma mamawh chu 3.2% zetin a tlahniam.
COVID-19 hripui leng avanga tihzauh tum tam tak tihkhawtlai a nih avangin kum 2018 leh 2022 inkarah hian Soda ash siamchhuah theihna chu zau takin a nghet zel dawn a ni. Dik tak chuan China hian he hun chhung hian soda ash capacity net loss a tawk a ni.
Mahse, hun rei lote chhunga hmasawnna langsar ber chu China aṭanga lo chhuak tur a ni a, heng zingah hian man tlawm (natural) production thar ton maktaduai 5 a awm dawn a, hei hi kum 2023 laihawl aṭangin a sang chho ṭan dawn a ni.
Tun hnaia US-a expansion project lian ber berte chu Genesis-in a thawk vek a, kum 2023 tawp lamah chuan ton maktaduai 1.2 vel zet a phur thei dawn a ni.
Kum 2028-ah chuan khawvel pumah capacity thar ton maktaduai 18 dah belh a nih beisei a ni a, 61% chu China atanga lo lut niin 34% chu US atanga lo lut a ni.
Production capacity a san chuan technological base pawh a danglam zel bawk. Natural soda ash hian production thar siam theihnaah a chanvo a pung zel a ni. Kum 2028-ah chuan khawvel puma thil siam chhuah zat aṭanga a chanvo chu 22% a nih beisei a ni.
Natural soda ash siam chhuah man hi a tlangpuiin synthetic soda ash aiin a hniam zawk hle. Chutiang chuan technological landscape inthlak danglamna hian global cost curve pawh a tidanglam bawk. Inelna hi supply-ah a innghat a, capacity thar awmna hmun (geographical location) hian inelna pawh a nghawng dawn a ni.
Soda ash hi kan nitin nun nena inzawm tlat, end-use application-a hman thin chemical bulpui a ni. Chutiang chuan soda ash mamawhna a pun chhoh dan hi tunhma atang tawhin economy thang mekte’n an lo kalpui tawh a ni. Mahse, soda ash mamawhna hi economic growth vang chauh a ni tawh lo; environmental sector pawhin soda ash mamawhna a tipung nasa hle bawk.
Mahse, heng end-use application-a soda ash awm theihna absolute potential hi sawi lawk a harsa hle. Lithium-ion battery te pawh tiamin battery-a soda ash hman theihna tur ruahmanna chu a buaithlak hle.
Solar glass-ah pawh chutiang bawk chu a ni a, international energy agency-te chuan an solar energy forecast chu chunglam hawiin an siam \ha reng a ni.
Soda ash siamnaah hian sumdawnna hian hmun pawimawh tak a chang a, a chhan chu production center-te hi mamawhna hmun hnaihah a awm ngai lo va, soda ash hmun li a\anga hmun khat vel chu hmun lian tak tak inkara phurh chhuah a ni.
United States, Türkiye leh China te hi shipping market-a an nghawng avangin he industry-ah hian ram pawimawh tak an ni. American producer-te tan chuan export market atanga demand hi ram chhunga market puitling aiin hmasawnna thlentu lian zawk a ni.
Tunhma atang tawhin American thil siamtute chuan an thil siam chhuah chu export tihpun hmangin an tipung a, hei hi competitive cost structure-in a pui a ni. Shipping market lian ber berte chu Asia ram dang (China leh Indian subcontinent tel lovin) leh South America te an ni.
Khawvel sumdawnna lama a chanvo tlem hle mah se, China hian a thil thawn chhuah a inthlak danglam avangin khawvel puma soda ash market-ah nghawng lian tak a nei a, hei hi kumin chhunga kan hmuh tawh angin a ni.
A chunga kan sawi tawh ang khan China hian kum 2023 leh 2024 khan capacity nasa tak a belhchhah a, hei hian oversupply beisei a tisang a, mahse kum 2024 kum chanve hmasa berah khan Chinese import hian record level a thleng a ni.
Hetihlai hian kumin thla nga chhung khan US export chu kum hmasa aiin 13% zetin a pung a, a hlawkna lian ber chu China aṭangin a ni.
Kum 2023-ah China ramah hian demand growth a chak hle dawn a, ton maktaduai 31.4 vel a tling dawn a, hei hi solar control glass hmanga tihpun a ni ber.
China hian kum 2024-ah soda ash ton maktaduai 5.5 zetin a tizau dawn a, hei hi hun rei lote chhunga mamawh thar beisei aia tam a ni.
Mahse, kuminah chuan demand growth hian beisei a phak leh ta a, kum 2023 kum chanve hmasa berah khan kum hmasa aiin kum hmasa aiin demand a pung a, tuna growth rate hi a chhunzawm zel a nih chuan China rama supply leh demand inkar hi a lian lutuk tawh dawn lo.
Ram hian solar glass siamchhuah theihna a tipung chhunzawm zel a, July 2024-ah chuan a siam chhuah zawng zawng chu ton maktaduai 46 vel a nih beisei a ni.
Mahse, China thuneitute chuan solar glass siam chhuah theihna tam lutuk chu an ngaihtuah hle a, khapna policy chungchang an sawiho mek a ni. Hetihlai hian China-a installed photovoltaic capacity chu January atanga May 2024 thleng khan kum hmasa aiin 29% zetin a pung niin National Energy Administration chuan a tarlang.
Mahse, China rama PV module siamna industry chu hlohna neiin an thawk niin an sawi a, hei vang hian assembly plant tenau ṭhenkhat chu an thawk lo emaw, an siam chhuah pawh an titawp emaw a ni.
Chutih rual chuan Southeast Asia-ah hian PV module assembler tam tak a awm a, a tam zawk chu Chinese investor-te ta a ni a, US PV module market-a supplier pawimawh tak an ni.
US sorkarin import tax holiday a hlih avangin tun hnaiah assembly plant ṭhenkhat chuan an thil siam chhuah a titawp nia sawi a ni. Chinese solar glass thawnchhuahna hmunpui ber chu Southeast Asia ramte an ni.
China rama soda ash mamawhna a punna hian record level a thlen laiin, China ram pawnah chuan soda ash mamawhna dynamics erawh a danglam zawk thung. A hnuaia tarlan te hi Asia leh America ram dang zawng zawnga mamawh chungchang tawi te te a ni a, heng thil thleng thenkhat te hi tarlan a ni.
Import statistics hian Asia ram dang (China leh Indian subcontinent tello)-a soda ash mamawhna awm dan tarlanna \angkai tak a pe a, hei hi tualchhung thil siam chhuah theihna a tlahniam vang a ni.
Kum 2024 thla nga atanga thla ruk chhung khan he biala thil lakluh hi ton maktaduai 2 a tling a, nikum aiin 4.7% zetin a tam zawk a ni (Figure 2).
Asia ram dangah soda ash mamawhna tipungtu ber chu solar glass a ni a, sheet glass pawhin a thawh hlawk hle a rinawm.
Figure 3-a kan hmuh angin, he biala solar power leh flat glass project eng emaw zat ruahman a ni a, hei hian soda ash mamawh thar ton maktaduai khat vel a belhchhah thei a ni.
Mahse, solar glass industry hian harsatna engemaw zat a tawk bawk. Tun hnaia US-in anti-dumping leh countervailing duties a siam ang chi tariff-te hian Vietnam leh Malaysia ang ramtea photovoltaic module siamchhuahna a nghawng thei a ni.
China rama siam component-a chhiah lak a nih chuan heng ram chhunga thil siamtute chuan tariff sang tak an lak loh nan China ram pawna supplier-te hnen aṭangin key components an lak a ngai a ni. Hei hian production cost a tisang a, supply chain a ti buai hle a, a tawpah chuan US market-a Southeast Asian PV panel-te inelna a tichak lo ang.
Southeast Asia-a Chinese PV panel assembler eng emaw zatin June thla khan tariff an siam avangin an siamchhuah an titawp nia sawi a ni a, thla leh lamah chuan production tihtawp belh a nih a rinawm.
Americas bial (US tel lo) hi thil lakluhnaah a innghat nasa hle. Chutiang chuan imports-a inthlak danglamna zawng zawng hi underlying demand tilangtu tha tak a ni thei.
Trade data hnuhnung ber chuan kum khat chhunga thla nga atanga thla sarih chhungin import dynamics a negative tih a tarlang a, 12% zetin a tlahniam a, hei hi metric ton 285,000 a ni (Figure 4).
North America-ah chuan a tlahniam ber a, 23% emaw ton 148,000-in a tlahniam a ni. Mexico-ah hian tlahniam nasa ber a ni. Mexico rama soda ash mamawhna lian ber, container glass chu zu mamawhna a tlahniam avangin a chak lo hle. Mexico rama soda ash mamawh zawng zawng hi kum 2025 thleng hian a pung dawn lo.
South America atanga thil lakluh pawh nasa takin a tlahniam a, kum hmasa aiin 10% zetin a tlahniam bawk. Argentina thil lakluh a tlahniam ber a, kum hmasa aiin 63% zetin a tlahniam.
Mahse, kuminah hian lithium project thar eng emaw zat siam tura ruahman a nih avangin Argentina ram lakluh hi a ṭhat phah a ngai a ni (Figure 5).
Dik tak chuan South America-a soda ash mamawhna tipungtu lian ber chu lithium carbonate a ni. Tun hnaiah lithium industry hi man tlawmna hmun anga ngaihna ṭha lo awm mah se, hun rei lote leh hun rei tak chhunga thlirna chu a ṭha hle.
Supplier lian ber berte export man hian khawvel puma market dynamics inthlak danglamna a tarlang a ni (Figure 6). China ramah hian thil man a inthlak danglam nasa ber.
Kum 2023 khan China chuan FOB metric ton khatah US$360 a ni a, kum 2024 tir lam khan FOB metric ton khatah US$301 a ni a, June thla thleng khan FOB metric ton khatah US$264-ah a tlahniam a ni.
Hetihlai hian Turkey hian kum 2023 tir lam khan metric ton FOB khatah US$386 a ni a, December 2023 thleng khan metric ton FOB khatah US$211 chauh a ni a, May 2024 thleng khan metric ton FOB khatah US$193 chauh a ni.
January atanga May 2024 thleng khan US export man chu metric ton FAS khatah $230 a ni a, kum 2023-a kum khata FAS metric ton khatah $298 aiin a hniam zawk a ni.
A pum puiin tun hnaiah soda ash industry-ah hian overcapacity a awm tih hmuhchhuah a ni. Mahse, tuna China rama demand growth hi vawng reng thei a nih chuan oversupply awm thei chu hlauh angin a na lo mai thei.
Mahse, he hmasawnna tam zawk hi clean energy sector atanga lo chhuak a ni a, he category hi a absolute demand potential dik taka sawi harsa tak a ni.
OPIS-a chemical market intelligence division, Dow Jones & Company chuan kumin October 9-11 chhung hian Malta-ah kum tin Soda Ash Global Conference vawi 17-na a buatsaih dawn a ni. Kum tin inkhawmpui thupui atan “The Soda Ash Paradox” tih a ni.
Global Soda Ash Conference (khawi lamah en rawh) hian market sector zawng zawng atanga khawvel mithiam leh industry hruaitute a ko khawm ang a, soda ash industry leh a kaihhnawih industry hrang hrangte tana expert forecast ngaihthlak a ni ang a, market dynamics, harsatna leh remchangte sawiho a ni ang a, khawvel market kalphung danglam zelin nghawng a neih dan tur a zirchiang ang a, Chinese market-in khawvel a nghawng dan tur pawh a zirchiang bawk ang.
Glass International chhiartute chuan conference ticket-ah code GLASS10 hmangin 10% discount an dawng thei a ni.
Jess hi Glass International-a Deputy Editor a ni a, a hnathawhna hmunah hian a hlawhtling hle. Kum 2017 atang khan creative leh professional writing a zir tan a, kum 2020 khan degree a zo a, Quartz Business Media a zawm hma hian Jess hian company hrang hrang leh publication hrang hrangah freelance writer hna a thawk a ni.